In 2009, Foton Motor was once sought after by the market as a leader in the concept of new energy vehicles. After revisiting the company's new energy business a year later, we discovered that the company is undergoing qualitative changes:
1) When 90% of new energy automotive companies are still in the conceptual stage, Foton has already taken the lead in profit. We expect 2010 new energy bus will bring more than 150 million yuan in profit contribution to the company, with an increase rate of 200%; 2 ) The order source of Foton's new energy vehicles in 2010 has spread from Beijing to the entire country and overseas. We expect the company will occupy 30% of the market share of new energy buses in China; 3) Unlike the 2009 full purchase of Eaton’s complete powertrain system in the United States, The localization rate of the powertrain of Futian New Energy Bus in 2010 has significantly increased, which means that the company's competitiveness in this area has gradually surfaced, and the synergy effect of the Beijing New Energy Vehicle Industry Alliance has begun to show.
There is no doubt that the new energy business of Foton Motors is far ahead of its competitors, and this is not fully reflected in the company's stock price. This is where the company's opportunities lie. The process of company-wide growth has only just begun. It is worth looking forward to: In the field of traditional commercial vehicles, the growth mode of the company has changed from an extension of the past to the pursuit of profitable quality. Cummins, Daimler and other cooperative projects are also expected to gradually contribute profits in the next two years.
The introduction of affordable housing policies has provided a rebound opportunity for the company's share price: We expect that this policy will bring an annual increase of 2.5 million new start-ups, driving demand for heavy trucks by 2%-3%, fully compensating for the negative impact and pessimistic expectations of real estate regulation. Bring back opportunities for heavy truck stocks such as Foton; investment advice. We believe that the market does not fully recognize the value of Foton's new energy auto industry and exaggerated the negative impact of macroeconomic risks on the company's performance over the next 1-2 years; Foton Motors It is still one of the most anticipated commercial vehicle companies in China in the next three years. We recommend that investors pay attention to it. Valuation. We forecast the company's 10-12 EPS to be 1.824, 2.286, and 2.814, respectively; Value should be fully taken into account the value of its new energy vehicles, respectively, given Futian Europe V passenger cars, light trucks, and heavy trucks 40X, 16X and 12X of the 2010 PE, giving the company a target price of 30 yuan, it is recommended to "buy"; risk. The risks that the company faces are still mainly from the systemic risks of the macro-economy and the auto market, but we believe that the company's future connotative growth will help Enhance the ability to cope with risks;
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